What is a refill customer really worth?

Enter ARPU or order value, billing frequency, gross margin, and churn. Get subscription LTV, implied lifespan, and optional CAC payback.

Revenue per billing cycle before margin
Contribution after variable product cost
Churn input
Share of subscribers who cancel in a typical month

Optional: CAC

Add CAC to see months to pay back and LTV to CAC.

What this helps you decide

Subscription LTV shows what a refill customer is worth after margin and churn. Use it to judge whether acquisition spend can pay back.

  • Contribution LTV from ARPU, margin, and churn
  • Implied lifespan (1 / monthly churn)
  • Optional CAC payback and LTV:CAC
  • Shareable link for team review

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Decisions

Subscription LTV questions founders ask

Use these before you treat LTV as a hard budget ceiling.

How is subscription LTV calculated here?

We convert order value to monthly ARPU using billing frequency, apply gross margin, then divide by monthly churn. That is contribution LTV under a steady-churn assumption.

Should I enter monthly or annual churn?

Use the mode that matches your reporting. Annual churn is converted to a simple monthly rate for planning. Cohort reality can differ.

What does implied lifespan mean?

Implied lifespan is 1 divided by monthly churn. At 5% monthly churn, expected active life is about 20 months under this simple model.

When should I add CAC?

Add CAC when you want months to pay back and an LTV to CAC ratio. Leave it blank if you only need lifetime contribution value.

Is this the same as classic LTV?

It is related but tuned for subscriptions and refill. Classic LTV often uses purchase frequency and lifespan. This version centers churn and billing cadence.

What is a healthy refill LTV?

Many teams look for LTV to CAC around 3x or better with monthly churn near or under 5%. Bands here are directional, not a guarantee.